Natural Gas Trading Above Key Long-Term Moving Average

Energy Market Update: 11 October, 2023 Natural Gas Trading Above Key Long-Term Moving Average https://youtu.be/spAiR1UUDUw In our Sept 25th Energy

Energy Market Update: 11 October, 2023

Natural Gas Trading Above Key Long-Term Moving Average

In our Sept 25th Energy Update we pointed out Natural Gas, which is the largest source of power for the generation of Electricity declined this year to very low historical levels and consumers had an opportunity to secure rates with a supplier not only below their local utility’s present rates, but more importantly far below where rates will likely average for at least the next 36-months.

But we pointed out it was important to note this opportunity would likely be short-lived since as shown in the following chart in our April 10th Energy Update waiting for slightly lower prices was not in your best interest:

On Sept 25th, we pointed out since 2000 prices were higher than where they were on April 10th more than 96% of the time; therefore, it was easy to understand why after April 10th, Natural Gas trended higher and was up 31% rallying from $2.01 per MMBtu to $2.64 per MMBtu as of September 25th:

In our Sept 25th Energy Update, we said hopefully, the empirical evidence in that report helped you understand why we recommend anyone with an agreement expiring in the next 18 months not delay hoping for lower prices and reserve power to be available when their present agreements expired. Our concern was the longer you delayed, the more you would likely pay later.

And after our Sept 25th Energy Update our concern was validated with Natural Gas moving sharply higher and is trading above the 200-day MA:

Since Sept 25th Natural Gas rallied from $2.64 to today’s opening of $3.37, and is now 68% higher than where it was on Apr 10th, and most important we are now above the 200-Day MA. This long-term moving average is closely followed by traders as the likely long-term trend.

After reading the April 10th  Energy Update those who heeded our warning that rates were likely moving higher and secured a fixed rate nailed the lowest rates of the year. But with that being said, please don’t despair that you may have missed a major opportunity. From a long-term perspective, this cycle of higher Natural Gas prices is likely still in its early stages:

Since 2000, when Natural Gas declined to where it was in 2023, the average price was always much higher longer-term, which you can clearly see in the above chart showing the 4 previous blocks of pricing in which the average price was always much higher for extended periods of time.

Hopefully the empirical evidence in this chart helps you understand history is repeating itself and Natural Gas and Electricity prices will likely continue moving heading higher into the end of this year and throughout 2024 from present levels, and securing a fixed rate with a supplier is in your best interest.

Therefore, we continue to recommend anyone with an agreement expiring in the next 18 months not delay, hoping for lower prices and reserve power to be available when their present agreements expire. Our concern, as before, is the longer you delay now, the more you will likely pay later.

Not every client’s risk tolerance and hedging strategy are the same, but the above report will help you put into perspective the risk/reward opportunities. I invite you to call one of our energy analysts to help you plan a hedging strategy appropriate for your situation.

Ray Franklin
Energy Professionals
Senior Commodity Analyst

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